NK Report

Only at MHI-NK News: Judge orders North Korea to pay Otto Warmbier’s parents $501 million in damages, By Leo Byrne North Korea “liable for the torture, hostage taking, and extrajudicial killing of Otto Warmbier” A U.S. district court judge on Monday ordered North Korea to pay $501 million dollars in damages to Otto Warmbier’s parents as part of a lawsuit they filed against the DPRK earlier this year. Otto Warmbier was held captive in North Korea for 17-months after being charged with attempting to steal a propaganda poster.  He was returned to the U.S. in June last year in a coma and died shortly after his arrival back in the United States. “The defendant Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (“North Korea”) shall be liable for damages in the amount of $501,134,683.80,” the court order reads. Although North Korea is unlikely to pay the damages and did not send any representatives to defend the case, the Warmbiers said they pursued the lawsuit as they wanted “justice” for Otto’s death. In her reasoning behind the decision, Judge Beryl Howell criticized Warmbier’s trial in the DPRK and said North Korea was “liable for the torture, hostage taking, and extrajudicial killing of Otto Warmbier, and the injuries to his mother and father, Fred and Cindy Warmbier.”“North Korea never entered an appearance in, or defended against, this action, and the plaintiffs now move for default judgment for the damage caused by North Korea to Otto and his parents,” Howell said in comments carried by Law and Crime. Howell added that Warmbier’s testimony in North Korea appeared to be staged and that he had been forced to memorize the words. The judge added that there were numerous factual problems with his testimony. “Examples of the many untruths in the purported “confession” include: (1) Otto called his father’s company “Finishing Cincinnati Black Oxide,” but that company, in fact, is called “Finishing Technology”; (2) Otto said he practiced for his alleged crime by stealing street signs at the University of Virginia and storing the stolen signs under his bed, yet his father never found any such stolen signs,” the judge wrote. “Otto said he conspired with the Friendship United Methodist Church, which had assets of $42 million, even though Otto had no relationship with that church, was not Methodist, and the church has no such extensive assets.” When the Warmbiers filed the lawsuit in April, the White House said it was supportive of the action, though was added it was not involved with the case. North Korea denies torturing Warmbier and said his condition was due to his contracting botulism and taking a sleeping pill. “To make it clear once again, Warmbier was a criminal who was sentenced to reform through labor … However, we provided him with sincere medical care on humanitarian grounds in consideration of his failing health until he returned to the U.S.,” North Korea said in September last year. A coroner for Hamilton County, Ohio, told media at the time that Warmbier’s brain had at some point been starved of oxygen, though they did not what the root cause of his condition was. Rodong accuses the U.S. of “fabricating” UN resolution to strengthen sanctions, By Dagyum Ji Seoul also criticized for “tarnishing atmosphere” of improving ties by raising human rights issue North Korean state newspaper Rodong Sinmun on Tuesday denounced Washington for “fabricating” the UN human rights resolution with the “wicked intention” of strengthening sanctions and pressure. The report comes following a string of articles released in DPRK state media since last Friday ratcheting up the rhetoric against both the U.S. and South Korea and warning of consequences, in response to the recent adoption of a UN resolution condemning the North Korean human rights situation. The Rodong Sinmun, an organ of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK), on Tuesday criticized the U.S. for “fabricating” the resolution, which was passed during a plenary session of the UN General Assembly on December 17. “This is a serious political provocation against the dignified DPRK,” the Rodong said in a commentary. “And it is a vicious move to tarnish the DPRK international image, which can never be condoned.” In the Korean-language editorial, the DPRK’s most widely-circulated newspaper said the U.S. State Department “clamored that it ‘should put sustained pressure on North Korea’ for ‘the improvement of human rights’” by issuing the statement before the passage of the resolution. Though the Rodong did not provide any further details, the statement is likely to refer to remarks carried by Deputy Spokesperson Robert Palladino on the U.S. designation on three high-ranking North Korean officials on December 10. Palladino said Washington “remains resolved to press North Korean government to respect human rights” during a regular briefing held on December 11. But the Rodong on Tuesday urged the Trump administration to “stop provocative and malicious behavior” against Pyongyang. “It is the trite method used by the U.S. that arbitrarily fabricates the human rights situation of the country which irritates Washington and misleads public opinion,” the Rodong said in the commentary. “The wicked intention of the U.S. and its followers in obstinately clamoring about the non-existent ‘human rights issue’ of the DPRK is done to broaden the scope of sanctions and pressure and to strengthen them.” The Rodong also denounced Seoul, continuing that Pyongyang could not overlook that the South Korean government was engaged in Washington’s “anti-DPRK racket of slandering the human rights situation.” “The South Korean authorities’ act of chiming in and involving in the impure act of plotting to do harm to the DPRK is the thoughtless and shameful behavior that would tarnish the atmosphere of the improving inter-Korean relations…,” the newspaper read. The Rodong continued that such behavior “incites the rash act of the U.S. and its followers aiming to make confrontation against the DPRK.” Other North Korean state media outlets Uriminzokkiri and Arirang-Meari on Tuesday also respectively carried an editorial denouncing Washington of “fabricating” the UN resolution on human rights and naming 10 “Countries of Particular Concern” (CPCs) for severe violations of religious freedom including the North. The outer-track outlet Uriminzokkiri called on the U.S. to “cultivate the habit to see the world in the right perspective and behave with discernment” in order to “avoid a bleak future.” Uriminzokkiri  particularly said the U.S. and its followers “must pay a dear price for provocative and malicious behaviors against the dignified DPRK.” North Korean online media Arirang-Meari and DPRK Today respectively on Sunday and Monday also used the same rhetoric in warning of the “dear price” to be paid. North Korean state newspaper Rodong Sinmun drops free PDF distribution, By Colin Zwirko Downloads through Japanese affiliate still available, however The website of North Korea’s primary state-run newspaper Rodong Sinmun ceased offering a downloadable PDF version of its daily newspaper late on Sunday. Previously free to view page-by-page through a button on the Rodong’s homepage, the option was gone by Monday morning, following NK News confirmation of the Sunday edition’s availability early on December 23. Article text is still being uploaded to the Rodong website as of December 25, however, and state broadcaster Korea Central Television (KCTV) still carried its customary walkthrough of the Monday edition to round out the day’s 5pm daily news. But this is not the first change Rodong has made to its PDF distribution service, as smaller files with lower resolution and sometimes blurry text began to replace higher quality images uploaded to the site in early February 2016. Those still seeking higher-resolution PDF files for the country’s mainstay newspaper will now have to look elsewhere, with one remaining option being to apply for membership of a subscription service operated by North Korean media partners in Japan. One affiliate of the Rodong and state outlet Korea Central News Agency (KCNA), the  Tokyo-based “Korea Media,” offers members “real-time” access to over a dozen North Korean newspapers and other publications, including daily PDF files of the Rodong Sinmun. Korea Media’s homepage, now merely an “under renewal” landing page, described its operation as recently as April 2018 as one made in partnership with North Korean media organizations, created to “introduce and sell various books, newspapers, magazines, photos and videos to the world.” While a page explaining the service on another Korea Media site, “KPM,” currently says the service is free to institutions who sign contracts with the organization, it also explains that payment is necessary for media companies wishing to redistribute any content offered through the service. Current pricing for article redistribution is not listed, but the price for reprinting images ranges from USD$60 to $200. NK News sister-site KCNA Watch previously redistributed PDFs from the Rodong website for free, allowing users to download the PDFs without accessing North Korea’s official newspaper website, which is often offline or slow to use. The Rodong decision to take down the freely-available PDF could, therefore, be seen as an effort to take more control over where and how readers obtain high-quality versions of the Rodong newspaper. But as North Korea continues to feel the pressure from ongoing efforts by the U.S. to press UN member states for strict sanctions enforcement, the move could also be seen as a way to earn money for media content produced by the state and already widely consumed by an international audience. Korea Media, on a previous version of its site, named their Director Lee Sang Ho (李相鎬 in Japanese), and listed their bank as Mitsubishi Tokyo UFJ Bank. The organization moved its offices to Shinjuku in downtown Tokyo in June 2015, the site also says, having previously been located in the nearby Hakusan district within the offices of the [North] Korea Publishing House (조선출판회관). Korea Media first started offering Rodong PDF files of the Rodong Sinmun online in November 2011. Chinese brand-promotion group wraps up week-long Pyongyang business trip, By Colin Zwirko Investment seminar, B2B meetings, and site inspections on itinerary for group of business leaders Over a dozen Chinese business people wrapped up a week-long trip to Pyongyang Sunday as part of the Global Promotion Project of National Brands, according to a report from one of the project’s co-developers, the Beijing Private Economic Development Association (BPEDA). The group was scheduled to tour potential investment sites in Pyongyang and Wonsan, hold a “China-DPRK Investment Seminar,” and hold “face-to-face business meetings with [North Korean] company partners,” a pre-trip BPEDA itinerary said. Photos posted Monday to Chinese social media site Weibo show the group at the Koryo Hotel, the Pyongyang Sci-Tech Complex, and various tourist sites. Individuals identified in pictures and by BPEDA news articles on the trip include the organization’s Secretary General Zheng Yongge and Vice Presidents Yang Xiyun and Song Xianliang. But BPEDA members who also serve as leaders of various businesses were also part of the delegation, including cosmetics brand Ejiasu chairwoman Lai Meifang. The BPEDA said the group was invited to Pyongyang by the National Science and Technology Commission of the DPRK, and arrived in Pyongyang having traveled by train from Dandong on December 18. An announcement posted in November to the organization’s website – describing the upcoming trip and inviting interested parties to apply to join the tour – credited Kim Jong Un’s three trips to China in 2018 with setting the stage for increased economic cooperation. It characterized the delegation as a response to DPRK “government reform” plans, saying it was organized “in order to promote in-depth economic and cultural exchanges and extensive cooperation between China and the DPRK.” “The delegation will bring the DPRK people advanced domestic technology, national brands, and high-quality products,” the BPEDA statement read. During the delegation’s trip, it said, “nearly 100 figures from all walks of life, such as DPRK leaders, ministry leaders, local government officials, and major associations, will be gathered together to discuss friendship and cooperation … [over] infrastructure, commercial real estate, park development, food, agriculture, trade, manufacturing, and other projects.” Have you listened to our latest episode?

Top MHI-NK Stories from around the web: Get ready for a new North Korean missile test (Washington Examiner) North Korea is impatient that U.S. and international sanctions remain in force against it. We should expect at least one new North Korean missile test in the months ahead. In an aggressive statement on Thursday, North Korea warned that “The United States must now recognize … the accurate meaning of the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula … means the removal of all sources of nuclear threat, not only from the South and North but also from areas neighboring the Korean Peninsula.” The North Koreans are complaining here about U.S. nuclear strike forces out of Guam, and the fleet nuclear ballistic missile submarine force in west Pacific waters. Yet the key point here is that North Korea knows the U.S. will never remove its submarine forces from the Pacific. They know that their nuclear threat to America and that posed by China, and Russia requires America’s presentation of an effective deterrent counterforce. So why, if North Korea knows its demands are absurd, is it making them? Well, to grab U.S.attention. Kim Jong Un and his hardliner head honcho, Kim Yong Chol are aggravated by the Trump administration’s unwillingness to dance to Pyongyang’s traditional diplomatic waltz. Which is to say, Trump’s reluctance to reduce sanctions and invest money in North Korea in return for its mild-to-false concessions. Kim had hoped that Trump’s active praise of him over the past few months would meet functional U.S. concessions. But beyond a U.S. reluctance to impose significant new sanctions on North Korea, Trump has ( somewhat) disappointed Pyongyang. Instead, the president has charted a careful course between confidence building and demanding North Korean steps towards denuclearization and the dismantling of its intercontinental ballistic missile program. The problem for Kim, then, is that absent the kind of sanctions relief that would allow for greater foreign capital inflows and easier global trade, the North Korean economy continues to operate in crisis mode. It’s only real salvation are the increasingly rampant Chinese and Russian breaches of the sanctions embargo. One way or another Kim needs to change this state of play. But with the Trump administration rightly reluctant to copy South Korea and overtly appease Kim’s regime, Kim has only two options left. Either he can begin verifiably dismantling his missile and nuclear sites and receive U.S. concessions. Or he can return to the brinkmanship of 2017, firing off new missile tests in an attempt to corral the U.S. to new concessions. Regrettably, I believe that Kim will choose the second option, because doing so will allow him to advance his ICBM strike capability. Remember, although he has suspended missile tests, Kim’s scientists have kept working to improve the delivery, targeting, and survivability systems on his warhead re-entry vehicles. As an extension, those improvements need testing if they are to take on a new threat. That takes us back to my concern as to tests coming early next year. Trump should get ahead of this threat. The president should be clear to Kim and to his patrons, Xi and Putin, what will happen if North Korea does conduct a new missile test. Namely, that any new test will break the diplomatic process, perhaps irrevocably. That new sanctions will include Chinese banking institutions alongside cyberattacks on any and all who support Kim’s regime. And that if North Korea still decides to play games, the B-2s will be ready. Pyongyang supermarket offers Seoul’s younger generation a taste of mysterious North Korea (ABC News) Pyongyang coffee, in its pink logo, draws the attention of passersby.  The Pyongyang supermarket opened over the weekend, but not in North Korea — in a college town in Seoul. Citizens are given a chance to experience North Korean-style cookies and candies, baked by North Korean defectors with the recipes they brought from back home. “My family made a living out of baking cookies and candies back in North Korea for generations,” Hong Eun-hye, a 42-year-old defector who settled down in Seoul 12 years ago, told ABC News. “These handmade confectionaries follow the North Korean-style naming, such as finger cookies and light bulb candies. I’m glad customers find it interesting.” All items sold in the Pyongyang supermarket are manufactured in South Korea. United Nations sanctions strictly ban imports and exports from North Korea. The promotion team of the supermarket focused on repackaging goods under the theme of Pyongyang, with North Korea’s naming sense to portray satire. Punggye-ri popcorn, for example, has a rocket on its cover and says it is “nuclear flavor.” Punggye-ri is an area in North Korea notorious for its nuclear test site, which the Kim Jong Un regime claims to have dismantled in May in front of foreign reporters. The market related the sweetened Korean traditional popcorn with the images of a weapons test site, and consumers get a good laugh at its humor.Jung Jiah, a visitor who works at an art gallery in Seoul, told ABC News that shopping for items in the Pyongyang supermarket and seeing comical posters and products made her feel closer to North Korea. 50 years after POW release in North Korea, Boiling Springs man celebrated (ABC 27) The Pueblo was a Navy intelligence vessel engaged in routine surveillance off the North Korean coast, when on Jan 23, 1968, it was confronted by torpedo boats. According to U.S. reports, the Pueblo was in international waters, almost 16 miles from shore, but North Korea demanded its surrender. One of the men onboard the Pueblo was Boiling Springs resident Don McClarren. “We thought we were going to be harassed and that was it,” McClarren said, “but once they started firing on us, we knew something was up.” Fireman Dwayne Hodges was killed and the other 82 crew members were taken as prisoners of war. After 11 months in captivity with interrogations, beatings, and torture, all were released. “We walked over the bridge of no return and it was a good feeling,” McClarren said. McClarren was a crypto tech, encoding and decoding messages aboard the ship. Saturday, his comrades at the Boiling Springs VFW post, along with help from family members, threw him a surprise celebration, although he wasn’t totally surprised. “I noticed some of the cars. I knew the cars. I knew something was up then,” McClarren said. “Somebody should have picked you guys up and bussed you here. We had it that close,” joked Nina Klinger. Klinger is McClarren’s daughter. She says her dad is humble and views his other crew members as heroes. “It’s events like this that really brings it home for him, to let him know that, yeah, he did really do something, too,” Klinger said. “Don, tonight, your friends, family and comrades honor your service, your sacrifice and your friendship,” said Nikki Noll, who helped to organize the event. Homeless youth search for place to ride out winter in North Korea (Daily NK) Although conditions in some of North Korea’s orphanages have improved for the country’s homeless children (known as kkotjebi), inadequate food supplies and a general lack of capacity have forced many to migrate to other areas in search of shelter. Those in the northerly and coldest provinces of North Hamgyong and Ryanggang have been moving to Tonchon and Hamhung in South Hamgyong Province, seeking a milder climate to ride out the winter. “The number of homeless children in Tonchon and Hamhung has increased significantly this winter. Most of them are from Chongjin and Hyesan. The local police are trying to process them all and have been totally overwhelmed by the numbers,” a source in North Hamgyong Province told Daily NK. The average daytime temperature is five degrees higher in South Hamgyong Province when compared to the northerly provinces of Ryanggang and North Hamgyong. “The authorities ordered mobilizations to gather resources for facilities to house the young homeless population but it ended up being only in a few places–definitely not enough,” the source added. With many already at capacity in these other areas, most facilities cannot accommodate new intakes and are sending them back to their point of origin. “They should find a way to make some sort of temporary facilities but they haven’t done a thing,” a separate source in South Hamgyong Province said. “Vendors working at Tonchon Market and Kwangchon Market are really worried about their goods being stolen with the influx of kkotjebi. A lot of them are in their mid-to-late teens and move in groups. The local police often try to get them to work at construction sites but they cause way too much trouble and most just quit and leave. It’s a real mess.” U.N. grants sanctions exemption for inter-Korean project’s groundbreaking ceremony(Yonhap News) The United Nations Security Council has granted a sanctions waiver to enable the Koreas to hold a symbolic groundbreaking ceremony for their project to modernize and reconnect roads and railways across the border this week, a Seoul official said Tuesday. South and North Korea are preparing to hold the event Wednesday at Panmun Station in the North’s border town of Kaesong. The project is part of the summit agreement reached between their leaders in April aimed at fostering balanced development and co-prosperity on the Korean Peninsula. “Consultations over the groundbreaking ceremony with the council’s North Korea sanctions committee were wrapped up Monday, New York time,” a foreign ministry official said. While the groundbreaking ceremony itself is not subject to sanctions imposed on the North, the waiver was needed for the train that South Korean officials are planning to take, as well as for other materials necessary for the event, to enter the North. The Seoul government said it sent related materials and some 30 officials to North Korea on Tuesday. Another group of South Koreans were dispatched to the North on Monday for the preparatory work. South Korea reportedly sought the sanctions exemption from the U.N. after consulting with the United States during their working group meeting on North Korea held in Seoul last week. After the meeting, Lee Do-hoon, Seoul’s top nuclear envoy, said the groundbreaking ceremony will be held in North Korea as scheduled. Ranking officials from the Koreas — including South Korea’s Unification Minister Cho Myoung-gyon and Transport Minister Kim Hyun-mee, as well as Ri Son-gwon, the chairman of the North’s state agency in charge of inter-Korean ties, and Kim Yun-hyok, the North’s railway minister — are planning to attend the ceremony. Seoul earlier set aside around 700 million won (US$618,000) to hold the event, which will be attended by some 100 people from each Korea.

Q-MHI Daily Brief ;

Good morning, Q-MHI readers!

WHAT TO WATCH FOR TODAY

Jailed Reuters journalists in Myanmar lodge an appeal. Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo were arrested while reporting on the Rohingya genocide. Their lawyers will argue that their September sentencing to seven years in prison for allegedly possessing classified documents was a set-up. Wa Lone, 32, and Kyaw Soe Oo, 28, were arrested in December 2017 and jailed for seven years for what prosecutors said was the possession of classified material on security operations.

Reuters disputed the charge, saying the pair were set up after investigating the massacre of 10 Rohingya Muslims during a military crackdown. The ruling in September sparked widespread condemnation, including from US vice president Mike Pence, who asked leader Aung San Suu Kyi to intervene. But calls for their release have fallen flat inside Myanmar, where Aung San Suu Kyi has yet to speak up for the reporters publicly.

Defence lawyers filed an appeal against the conviction in early November, citing evidence of a police set-up and lack of proof of a crime. “We are looking forward to demonstrating to Myanmar’s high court why it should reverse the convictions of Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo due to the egregious errors committed by the trial court in condemning them to prison for seven years,” Reuters editor-in-chief Stephen J Adler said in a statement. “We will explain to the appellate judge why, under the law, the only possible conclusion is that the appellate court must restore our reporters’ freedom and reaffirm Myanmar’s democratic principles,” he said.

Media advocates say the convictions sent a chilling message about investigating sensitive issues in Myanmaras it emerges from decades of junta rule. “This is unacceptable for a country that claims to be transitioning towards democracy,” Daniel Bastard from Reporters Without Borders (RSF). Myanmar dropped six places in RSF’s latest World Press Freedom Index, and Bastard said it would likely fall further next year. Outside the country the two young men have been feted with awards presented in their absence and hailed as heroes.

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Steve Mnuchin convenes a call on financial markets. The treasury secretary will gather (subscription) a group of top market regulators to discuss “coordination efforts to assure normal market operations.” Mnuchin called the CEOs of six bank major banks over the weekend to confirm they have “ample liquidity,” in a bid to reassure markets experiencing continued volatility.

The FTSE 100 .FTSE was down 0.5 percent and the mid-cap index .FTMC was 0.8 percent lower, setting a bleak tone for a holiday-shortened week. Weakness in the dollar weighed on companies with a greater international presence, making them the biggest drags on Britain’s main index .FTSE. HSBC (HSBA.L) slipped 1.1 percent, while GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L) was 1 percent lower.

Diageo (DGE.L), the world’s biggest drinks marker, and consumer goods giant Unilever (ULVR.L) were down by around 1 percent, while tobacco firms Imperial Brands (IMB.L) and British American Tobacco (BATS.L) fell 2 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively.

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Ruth Bader Ginsburg returns. The 85-year-old Supreme Court justice is working while recuperating in hospital from a surgery Friday to remove two malignant growths, a spokesperson said. The court meets again on Jan. 7; Ginsburg has never missed arguments.

The Supreme Court will ring in 2019 with a nearly full argument calendar. Today the justices released the calendar for the January 2019 sitting, which begins on January 7. The justices will hear oral argument in five cases (two per day on Monday and Tuesday, followed by one on Wednesday) during the first week of the sitting; during the second week, they will hear oral argument in six cases, two per day from Monday through Wednesday.

One of the last cases of the sitting will be familiar to eight of the nine justices: The justices heard oral argument in Knick v. Township of Scott, Pennsylvania, in early October, before Justice Brett Kavanaugh was confirmed. Earlier this month, however, the justices announced that the case would be argued again – presumably to allow Kavanaugh to break a 4-4 tie.

A full list of the cases slated for January, along with a brief description of the issues involved in each case, is available below the jump.

Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp. v. Albrecht (Jan. 7): Whether a plaintiff can bring a state-law claim for failure to warn about the risks from a drug when the Food and Drug Administration rejected the drug manufacturer’s proposal to warn about the risk

Obduskey v. McCarthy & Holthus LLP (Jan. 7): Whether the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act applies to foreclosure proceedings that do not require the lender to take the borrower to court

Herrera v. Wyoming (Jan. 8): Validity of 1868 treaty giving Crow Tribe of Indians the right to hunt on the “unoccupied lands of the United States”

Fourth Estate Public Benefit Corp. v. Wall-Street.Com LLC (Jan. 8): Requirements for making “registration of [a] copyright claim”

Franchise Tax Board of California v. Hyatt (Jan. 9): Whether the Supreme Court should overrule its earlier case allowing one state to be sued in another state’s courts without its consent

Thacker v. Tennessee Valley Authority (Jan. 14): Proper test to determine whether a governmental entity is immune from lawsuits

Rimini Street, Inc. v. Oracle USA, Inc. (Jan. 14): Meaning of “full costs” for prevailing party under the Copyright Act

Home Depot USA v. Jackson (Jan. 15): Whether third-party counterclaim defendants can remove claims against them to federal court under the Class Action Fairness Act

Azar v. Allina Health Services (Jan. 15): Whether the Department of Health and Human Services must conduct notice-and-comment rulemaking before providing instructions to a Medicare administrative contractor making initial determinations of payments due under Medicare

Knick v. Township of Scott, Pa. (Jan. 16): Whether the court should reconsider the requirement that, before a property owner can file a lawsuit in federal court seeking compensation for the government’s unconstitutional “taking” of property, the owner must pursue all available state-court remedies

Tennessee Wine & Spirits Retailers Association v. Blair (Jan. 16): Whether the Constitution’s 21st Amendment gives states the authority to regulate liquor sales by giving liquor licenses only to individuals or companies that have resided in the state for a particular amount of time

This post was originally published at Howe on the Court.

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An update on US economic activity. New figures from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago are expected to show a rise in economic activity in the midwest last month, suggesting risk of an imminent US recession remains low, based on the data published to date. The near-term outlook offers a similar profile. In short, the deceleration in the macro trend for the US doesn’t appear destined to deteriorate into a contraction in the immediate future, at least not yet.

The macro calculus could change, of course, depending on the incoming data. But using the results available today strongly suggests that there’s still a healthy tailwind, albeit a tailwind that’s lost momentum lately.

Surprising? Not really. The Capital Spectator’s read on the numbers has been noting for several months that US growth has peaked (see here and here, for instance). The latest run of data continues to support this view. The same can be said for projecting slower but still-moderate growth for early 2019. Leaving aside the dubious game of speculating on what might happen deep into next year, it’s fair to say that the numbers available right now (along with cautious near-term projections of the macro trend) continue to anticipate that a moderate expansion will prevail.

The US stock markets will close early today to mark Christmas Eve, and will be closed all day tomorrow.

The following is a schedule of all stock market and bond market holidays for 2018. Please note that regular trading hours for the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq Stock Market are 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern on weekdays. The stock markets close at 1 p.m. on early-closure days; bond markets close early at 2 p.m.

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OVER THE WEEKEND

The death toll from Indonesia’s tsunami rose past 280. With little warning, a giant wave triggered by a volcanic eruption hit the coasts of Sumatra and Java on Saturday night, injuring more than 1,000. Thousands of coastal residents have been forced to evacuate, with a high-tide warning in place until tomorrow.

12:30 p.m.

Thousands of soldiers, police and government personnel as well as volunteers are working to find victims of an Indonesian tsunami. At least 281 people died and more than 1,000 were injured when the waves washed ashore along western Java and southern Sumatra islands Saturday night following a volcanic eruption.

The tsunami was not huge and did not surge far inland, but its force was destructive. Disaster agency spokesman Sutopo Purwo Nugroho said more than 600 homes, many hotels and vendor stalls, and more than 400 boats and ships were damaged. The number of casualties may still rise. Nugroho said Monday, “It is suspected that some victims are still trapped under wreckage and materials washed away by the tsunami.”

9 a.m.

The death toll from an Indonesian tsunami has risen past 280 with more than 1,000 people injured.

The tsunami struck Sunda Strait coastal areas along western Java and southern Sumatra islands without warning in the darkness Saturday night.

Disaster agency spokesman Sutopo Purwo Nugroho said the latest tolls Monday morning were 281 dead and 1,016 injured. The tally of missing is 57 but the numbers are expected to rise.

The waves that swept terrified people into the sea followed an eruption and possible landslide on Anak Krakatau, one of the world’s most infamous volcanic islands.

8:20 a.m.

Doctors are working to help survivors and rescuers are looking for more victims from a deadly tsunami that smashed into beachside buildings without warning in the darkness along an Indonesian strait.

The waves that swept terrified people into the sea Saturday night followed an eruption and possible landslide on Anak Krakatau, one of the world’s most infamous volcanic islands.

At least 222 people were killed, more than 800 were injured, and dozens have been reported missing after the tsunami hit coastal areas along western Java and southern Sumatra islands. The death toll could increase once authorities hear from all stricken areas.

Indonesian President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo expressed his sympathy and ordered government agencies to respond quickly to the disaster.

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A partial government shutdown began in the US. Various federal agencies employing some 850,000 people shut down after the clock struck midnight on Friday, after the Senate failed to pass a spending bill with funding for Trump’s border wall. It’s possible the shutdown will drag past Christmas (subscription) and into the new congressional session in January.As a result, several federal agencies shut down at midnight. Employees gearing up for some holiday time off will now do so without pay, according to rules from the Offices of Management and Budget and Personnel Management.

It’s unclear when the affected agencies will get funding again—they include the Departments of Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, State, Interior, Agriculture, Treasury, Commerce, Homeland Security, and Justice. (The rest of the government is covered by spending bills that have already been approved.)

The unfunded departments employ some 850,000 people. About 40% are subject to being furloughed, trade publication Government Executive reports, based on the agencies’ shutdown plans. The rest will be asked to work without pay, though those who already have scheduled time off will be temporarily furloughed during those days.

Donald Trump has said he won’t sign anything that does not include funding for the border wall he wants to build between the US and Mexico—or as he’s called it more recently, a “steel slat barrier.” “We’re going to have a shutdown,” he said in a video message Friday night after he failed to reach a deal with lawmakers. “There’s nothing we can do about that because we need the Democrats to give us their votes.”But he doesn’t have enough support in the Senate for the bill he wants. As long as the showdown lasts, affected federal workers won’t get their checks.

The shutdown’s timing is particularly tricky, because many federal workers take days off around the Christmas holiday. Some have already left on their vacation. Even the simple task of notifying employees that they’ve been furloughed could turn into a headache.

“Many employees will be away from the office on an extended basis, complicating efforts to provide furlough notices,” the management offices wrote in their memo. “Agencies should do their best to provide notices as soon as possible given individual circumstances.”

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Trump booted out Jim Mattis. The president moved his defense secretary’s last day to Jan. 1, two months earlier than planned, reportedly in response to the negative news coverage following Mattis’s Dec. 20 resignation letter. Mattis’s deputy Patrick Shanahan will become acting defense secretary until a permanent successor is named.According to aides who spoke with the New York Times (paywall), the abrupt change of sentiment resulted from the days of negative news coverage that Mattis’s resignation letter prompted.

In his two years as defense secretary, Mattis had disagreements with the president at moments, but it seemed to be Trump’s decision to pull US troops from Syria (paywall) that finally prompted Mattis to step down. Mattis’s letter offered a subtle but pointed rebuke of the president’s foreign policy, stating for example:

My views on treating allies with respect and also being clear-eyed about both malign actors and strategic competitors are strongly held and informed by over four decades of immersion in these issues. We must do everything possible to advance an international order that is most conducive to our security, prosperity and values, and we are strengthened in this effort by the solidarity of our alliances.

Because you have the right to have a Secretary of Defense whose views are better aligned with yours on these and other subjects, I believe it is right for me to step down from my position.

The Times reports that, according to one aide, Trump had read the letter before he praised Mattis on Twitter, but he “did not understand just how forceful a rejection of his strategy Mr. Mattis had issued.” Over the past few days he had become more irate, until deciding that he would replace Mattis well before the former four-star general had originally planned to leave.

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Turkey increased military activity. Following a Sunday call between Trump and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to discuss the withdrawal of US troops from Syria, Turkey began bolstering its defenses on either side of the Syrian border. The withdrawal decision prompted the US’s top envoy for fighting ISIS, Brett McGurk, to resign on Saturday. The heightened military activity comes two days after President Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey would postpone a planned military operation on Kurdish YPG militia east of the Euphrates river in northern Syria following the U.S. decision to pull out.

The Turkish presidency said Erdogan and U.S. President Donald Trump in a phone call on Sunday agreed to establish military and diplomatic coordination to prevent an authority vacuum from developing as the United States withdraws.

Earlier in the day, footage from broadcaster TRT World showed some Turkish convoys entering Syria via the Turkish border town of Karkamis, which is located some 35 km (22 miles) north of the northern Syrian town of Manbij.

The convoys are crossing into an area controlled by the Free Syrian Army (FSA), a Turkish ally, and are heading to the frontlines of Manbij, TRT World said.

A Reuters witness saw hundreds of vehicles head to the southern border province of Kilis after leaving Hatay, another border province, around 0030 GMT on Sunday, as citizens sounded their horns to celebrate. The convoy included tanks, howitzers, machine guns and buses carrying commandos, the witness said.

Part of the military equipment and personnel are to be positioned in posts along the border while some had crossed into Syria via the district of Elbeyli situated some 45 km (28 miles) northwest of Manbij, Demiroren News Agency (DHA) reported.

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Japan and South Korea talked amid flaring tensions. The meeting in Seoul between the country’s senior diplomats touched on bilateral relations, defense disagreements, and North Korea, and followed a divisive ruling by South Korea’s Supreme Court that Japanese firms should compensate forced Korean laborers.

On Friday, Japan’s defence minister said a South Korean destroyer had locked its targeting radar on a Japanese patrol plane, calling the action extremely dangerous.”

South Korea’s defence ministry, which said last week the destroyer was performing routine operations, on Monday provided more details of the vessel’s actions.

While rescuing a distressed North Korean fishing boat, the destroyer had used an optical camera that detected a low-flying Japanese patrol plane, an official from South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff told reporters.

“During the process, there was no emission of radio waves at all,” the official said, denying that the warship had locked its tracking radar on the Japanese aircraft.

South Korean diplomats explained the situation “in detail” to their Japanese counterparts on Monday, and “the two sides agreed to continue to communicate as needed about this issue,” news agency News1 reported, citing an unnamed South Korean foreign ministry official.

The diplomats also discussed the North Korean nuclear issue and how Seoul and Tokyo could help restart talks between the United States and North Korea, South Korea’s foreign ministry said in a statement.

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SpaceX launched its first US national-security space mission.Elon Musk’s space company had been trying for years to break into the lucrative market for military space launches dominated by Lockheed Martin and Boeing. Sunday’s launch from Cape Canaveral, Florida carried a roughly $500 million GPS satellitebuilt by Lockheed.The successful launch is a significant victory for Elon Musk’s privately held rocket company, which has spent years trying to break into the lucrative market for military space launches dominated by Lockheed and Boeing Co.

SURPRISING DISCOVERIES

Petrified horses were discovered at the site of Pompeii. Archaeologists also found a bronze-trimmed saddle in what is believed to have been the villa of a Roman general.Massimo Osanna told the Italian news agency ANSA that the horses were likely suffocated by volcanic ash or killed by boiling water vapors in the eruption of Mt. Vesuvius in 79 A.D. The eruption destroyed the bustling city of Pompeii and its sister city of Herculaneum, burying hundreds of people and animals in ash which preserved their remains.

Osanna said the remains of three or four horses were discovered. One of the animals was harnessed and workers also found a saddle richly decorated with bronze trimmings. According to Osanna, the villa belonged to a high-ranking Roman military officer, possibly a general. He hopes the villa will eventually be opened for public tours.The villa’s terraces had views of the Bay of Naples and Capri island. The area was previously excavated, during the early 1900s, but later re-buried.

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Italian violin makers are harvesting downed trees. Artisans are rushing to save the wood of red spruces toppled by powerful storms before it rots. An unprecedented wave of storms has knocked trees down in Italy’s forests and artisans are racing to salvage the valuable wood before it rots. More than 2,500,000 red spruce trees were felled in violent storms. Red spruce is a wood prized by violin-makers – and they are concerned that supplies of it are running out, which makes destructive weather like this even more devastating.

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A letter sent to Santa via balloon from Mexico reached one of his helpers. An Arizona man who found the letter tracked down the girl to deliver the gifts (subscription) she asked for.The spot of red was what first caught Randy Heiss’s attention last Sunday as he hiked the remote expanse of land behind his ranch in Patagonia, Ariz., a town near the U.S.-Mexico border.

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A stolen tiny house was found. A towing company offered to lug the home about 100 miles to its owner in St. Louis free of charge as an early Christmas gift.

On Wednesday, detectives found the house 30 miles down the Mississippi River in House Springs, Mo., Jefferson County Sheriff Dave Marshak announced on Twitter. The Associated Press reported that an anonymous tip had led them to the purloined residence. According to the Post-Dispatch, there was no word on suspects.

It didn’t take authorities long to reach Panu, who received more good news. A towing company said it would return the home free of charge — “an early Christmas Present,” Marshak said. “TINY HOUSE FOUND,” Panu wrote on Facebook, adding a lighting bolt emoji. She plans to finish the interior before moving in next year.

When Panu takes up residence in her tiny home, she will join a movement that traces its roots to Henry David Thoreau, who wrote in “Walden,” published in 1854, of his desire “to live deliberately, to front only the essential facts of life, and see if I could not learn what it had to teach, and not, when I came to die, discover that I had not lived.” The writer and abolitionist built his own abode at Walden Pond, in Massachusetts.

Today’s tiny house movement similarly seeks distance from the consumer economy, but its expansion in the U.S. has also been born of necessity. According to EcoWatch, tiny homes emerged as an “architectural and cultural phenomenon” following the collapse of the housing market between 2007 and 2009. Now, from San Jose to Philadelphia, communities of tiny houses are emerging as a possible answer to intractable homelessness.

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A jazz musician played guitar during brain surgery. He made good use of his six-hour “awake craniotomy.” A musician had an operation in South Africa to remove most of a brain tumor—and played the guitar while it was happening. Musa Manzini, a jazz musician, was able to do so because he was given a local anesthetic during the six-hour “awake craniotomy” at the Inkosi Albert Luthuli hospital in Durban. ”There you are, do your thing,” one of the medical staff told him as he began playing.

The doctor in charge, Rohen Harrichandparsad, said that having Manzini awake and playing allowed him to test his “ability to produce music” and make sure they weren’t damaging him in any way. The staff removed 90% of the tumor.

It’s not the first time such an event has happened. In 2017, another musician played the saxophone during brain surgery and an opera singer performed through his surgery in 2015 (paywall).

Q-MHI