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Sabtu, 17 Februari 2018

Q-MHI Daily Brief ;

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Good morning, Q-MHI readers!

WHAT TO WATCH FOR TODAY

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North Korea holds a military parade. Pyongyang recently decidedto hold a celebration of the founding of its army on the day before the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics in South Korea. Some see the move as an act of defiance amid a thaw in relations between the two countries.
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North Korea’s official news agency said last month (Jan. 23) that it will mark Feb. 8 as Army-Building Day, the official anniversary of the Korean People’s Army—an event previously celebrated on April 25. South Korea said earlier that it had detected signs that North Korea was mobilizing around 13,000 troops and 200 pieces of equipment near an airport in Pyongyang for what could be a military parade rehearsal.  According to MHI-NK News, the last time Feb. 8 was used to mark the army anniversary was 1977, after which the date was changed to April 25.
A member of a South Korean conservative civic group burns a North Korean national flag during a protest opposing North Korea's participation in the 2018 Pyeongchang Winter Olympics, in Seoul
Meanwhile, the South Korean government is sticking to its message that the public, including politicians and the media, should get behind the Olympics detente efforts. As some protesters in Seoul in January burned images of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and the North Korean flag, president Moon emphasized the fragility and rarity of the current diplomatic breakthrough, and implored South Koreans to “show their support in maintaining and expanding the dialog as they will protect a candle in the wind.” Another unnamed South Korean official, the Hankyoreh newspaper reported, said that he “would like it if people looked at the larger ‘forest’ here, which is that we’re heading toward the ‘Peace Olympics’ we were hoping for.”


The UK’s central bank meets. The Bank of England is expected to hold rates steady and signal it will raise them up to three times over the next several years. But the future of Britain’s monetary policy ultimately depends on the path of Brexit.


Twitter reports earnings. Investors will be focusing on Twitter’s user metrics following recent attempts to clamp down on the spread of fake news on the platform, and a New York Times investigation exposing the widespread buying of fake accounts to boost influence.

WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING

A man walks through light rain in front of the Hey Google booth under construction at the Las Vegas Convention Center in preparation for the 2018 CES in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S. January 8, 2018. REUTERS/Steve Marcus - RC1AD2102DC0
Google execs are floating a plan to fight fake news. Quartz’s Heather Timmons discovered that Google executives at Davos were debating how they can play a role in combating fake news and bots on Facebook and Twitter. Hundreds of millions of people rely on Google’s search engine, which puts the company in a unique position to tell users whether info is trustworthy.


Hasil gambar untuk BlackRock’s Larry Fink Wants to Become the Next Warren Buffett
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is going full Warren Buffett.BlackRock is reportedly (paywall) planning to raise over $10 billion to make direct investments in companies, in the same way that Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway does. The move would pit the world’s largest asset manager against private-equity titans like Carlyle Group.


Harvesting (picture-alliance/ZB)
Germany hit a trade high.German farmers have some good news to report as International Green Week kicks off in Berlin. Exports of German agricultural produce and farm machinery reached a new peak last year despite a challenging environment. The country exported €1.279 trillion ($1.571 trillion) worth of goods in 2017, while imports totaled €1.034 trillion. That’s an all-time record, according to the National Statistics Office.


Bermuda became the first territory in the world to repeal same-sex marriage.British island territory swaps marriage for domestic partnerships for LGBT couples in move criticised as attack on equal rightsThe governor of the British island territory, John Rankin, said he wanted to balance conservative views on marriage equality. Same-sex marriage became legal in Bermuda in May 2017.


Hasil gambar untuk World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim
The World Bank chief compared cryptocurrencies to “Ponzi schemes.” Jim Yong Kim made the remark at a Wednesday night event in Washington, but added that the development bank is looking carefully at blockchain technology to see if it can be used in developing countries to reduce corruption.“In terms of using Bitcoin or some of the cryptocurrencies, we are also looking at it, but I’m told the vast majority of cryptocurrencies are basically Ponzi schemes,” World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim said Wednesday at an event in Washington. “It’s still not really clear how it’s going to work.”Mean while, Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Macro Associates chairman, discusses the downsides to cryptocurrencies and calls Bitcoin the “mother of all bubbles.” He speaks on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

Q-MHI OBSESSION INTERLUDE

Hasil gambar untuk Google gave the world powerful AI tools, and the world made porn with themHasil gambar untuk Google gave the world powerful AI tools, and the world made porn with them
Dave Gershgorn on Google’s powerful AI tools that were horribly misused. “Anyone can download AI software and use it for anything they have the data to create. That means everything from faking political speeches (with help from the cadre of available voice-imitating AI) to generating fake revenge porn. All digital media is a series of ones and zeroes, and artificial intelligence is proving itself proficient at artfully arranging them to generate things that never happened.”

MATTERS OF DEBATE

olympics propaganda
The Olympics are a just a mass global propaganda tool.Chapter 5 of the Olympic charter states “no kind of demonstration or political, religious or racial propaganda is permitted in any Olympic sites, venues or other areas.” The ostensible purpose of that rule is to allow for the huge global sporting event to bring people together, without fear of discrimination or of political upset.
The Olympics is meant to be a blank slate where all the participant countries are united as one. That, at least, is the utopian view of what the Olympics is, and what its governing body aims for. In practice,  It’s a large, expensive exercise in distracting citizens from problems and atrocities they face back home.


Three people in lab coats converse in a lab space with computers.
Journalists should fix the gender imbalance in their stories. Not quoting more female experts suggests that men are the best sources.Gender biases are also entrenched in the media, where, in the words of the sociologist Gaye Tuchman, women are being “symbolically annihilated.” As Adrienne noted in her piece, “both in newsrooms and in news articles, men are leaders—they make more money, get more bylines, spend more time on camera, and are quoted far more often than women.” Again, there’s plenty of data on this. Several analyses show that in news stories, male voices outnumber female ones, typically by a factor of three—the same ratio Adrienne found in her work.


David Goethel
The global fishing industry defies economic logic. Government subsidies are propping up a deeply unprofitable and destructive business.It’s often said that there are plenty more fish in the sea. For most of human history, that was true. From ancient Minoans to postwar industrial trawl fleets, mankind found wealth from harvesting more and more of the sea’s seemingly endless abundance of creatures. The more fishermen tried, the more their catches grew, such that, between 1950 and the mid-1990s, global fish landings more than quintupled.And then, suddenly, that stopped.Since then, the world has hauled up roughly the same volume of fish out of the ocean each year—about 85 million tonnes, on average.
atlas_BJOphWILM
Nowadays, more people are using more boats, more fuel, and more technology to catch sea creatures than ever before in human history. The global fleet doubled in the last four decades, according to UN FAO data, and the ranks of fishermen has more than tripled. At the same time, heavy technology investment—in things like more powerful engines, fancier fishing gear and spiffy fish-location devices—likely boosted fishing efficiency of fishing capital and labor, according to 2017 World Bank report, The Sunken Billions Revisited.
Taken together, global fishing effort has surged at least fourfold in the last 40 years, while the level of catches has not even doubled, says Charlotte de Fontaubert, senior fisheries specialist at the World Bank.

SURPRISING DISCOVERIES

The Nordic Olympic team’s chefs accidentally ordered 13,500 extra eggs. Changing one syllable in South Korea’s complex counting system can mean the difference between 1,500 and 15,000.Chefs for Norwegian athletes confronted with ‘half a truckload’ of eggs after an order at South Korean games went wrong,
Chefs with the Norwegian Winter Olympic team found themselves with 13,500 unwanted eggs after what they describe as an error while ordering for their hungry athletes from their South Korean base.The chefs, who are catering for their country’s 109 competitors at the Pyeongchang games, ordered 15,000 eggs to be delivered to their kitchen instead of 1,500 needed.Chef Stale Johansen, said his team “received half a truckload of eggs” and that there was “no end to the delivery” adding it was “absolutely unbelievable.”Fortunately for the team, who, according to Johansen have enjoyed eating fresh salmon and tacos in the past, once the chefs realised their mistake they were able to return the 13,500 surplus to the grocer.


A forensic reconstruction of Cheddar Man’s head, based on the new DNA evidence and his fossilised skeleton.
The first Britons had dark skin, blue eyes, and curly hair. A new DNA analysis is shedding light on a 10,000-year-old skeleton known as “Cheddar Man.”The fossil was unearthed more than a century ago in Gough’s Cave in Somerset. Intense speculation has built up around Cheddar Man’s origins and appearance because he lived shortly after the first settlers crossed from continental Europe to Britain at the end of the last ice age. People of white British ancestry alive today are descendants of this population.


Unicef is recruiting gamers to mine cryptocurrencies. Proceeds from newly generated Ethereum will aid Syrian children displaced by civil war.It is still in its infancy, raising little more than €900 (£795) so far, but it follows increasingly high-profile efforts by the UN to find uses for the technology.These include everything from helping to reduce the 30% of UN aid budgets lost to corruption to building online identity portfolios for refugees, reconciling everything from health and education records to entitlements.The World Food Programme (WFP) has used Ethereum to deliver $1.4m in food vouchers, via the use of iris recognition scanners in camp supermarkets, to around 10,000 Syrian refugees in Jordan, a scheme it plans to expand tenfold in four camps.
Rhodri Davies, head of policy at the Charities Aid Foundation, is enthusiastic about the potential of blockchain systems. He underlines the distinction between cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Bitcoin and the underlying blockchain technology, and what it can potentially offer aid agencies and charities.“There’s been a big increase in interest in the last 12 to 18 months that has percolated through as it has become more mainstream.


Diamonds and lasers.
Squishing water with diamond anvils produces “superionic ice.” The opaque water formed into hexagonal crystals is about 60% denser than normal ice.Percy W. Bridgman ’04, professor of physics, can now make ice which will not melt until a temperature higher than the boiling point of water is attained. Superionic ice is strange, Water is made of two hydrogen atoms linked to an oxygen atom, forming a V-shape. At such pressure and temperature, however, the bonds break apart. What you get instead is oxygen ions in crystalline form and hydrogen ions flowing through it—that is, a solid and a liquid at the same time, researchers from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the University of Rochester, and the University of California at Berkeley report creating superionic ice.


Morocco's Adam Lamhamedi clears a pole as he competes in the first run of the men's alpine skiing slalom event during the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics at the Rosa Khutor Alpine Center February 22, 2014
This will be the most African Winter Olympics ever. A record 13 athletes from eight countries— Eritrea, Nigeria, Kenya, Morocco, Ghana, Madagascar, South Africa, and Togo—will participate.
Ethiopia's Teklemariam finishes the men's 15km classical cross country race at the Winter Olympic Games
For African athletes, the journey to the Winter Olympics is typically anything but smooth-sailing. An obvious obstacle for African Winter Olympics hopefuls is the absence of weather conditions that aid training. As a result, a majority of African athletes that have competed at the Winter Olympics have either been born or/and trained outside the continent.
Nigeria bobsled team
But there’s a bigger record up for grabs for all 13 African athletes in Pyeongchang, South Korea: becoming the first African to win a Winter Olympics medal.
Q-MHI 

WEST WING MHI Daily

wwmd

Pentagon Chief James Mattis applauds spending deal: ‘America can afford survival’

Defense Secretary Jim Mattis speaks during the daily press briefing at the White House, in Washington, Wednesday, Feb. 7, 2018. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
S.A. Miller reports that Secretary of Defense James Mattis “heralded the two-year spending deal” struck on Capitol Hill—one that provides the Pentagon with sufficient long-term funding to keep America safe through military technology and personnel. Thanks to new spending caps, in Mattis’ words, “America can afford survival.”


Donald Trump is pictured. | Getty Images
In Politico, Darius Dixon writes that President Trump has already scored a win on infrastructure by passing the massive tax cut bill last year. America’s utility companies are “finding themselves with vast amounts of excess cash as a side effect of last year’s tax code rewrite,” which Dixon suggests “could become available for a massive buildout of energy infrastructure.”


Hasil gambar untuk It Takes Chutzpah to Call This the ‘Obama Boom’
In an op-ed for The Wall Street Journal, Andy Puzder breaks down progressives’ refusal to give President Trump credit for the current job market. Even with “hundreds of thousands of Americans . . . moving from part-time work to full-time employment,” Puzder notes that progressives say the economy “isn’t really booming” and that even if it is, the left would rather attribute any positive economic news to the Obama Administration.


In this March 30, 2012 photo, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agent waits with other agents outside of the home of a suspect before dawn as part of a nationwide immigration sweep in San Diego. Federal officials say they arrested more than 3,100 immigrants convicted of serious crimes and fugitives in a six-day nationwide sweep. Officials at U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement say the sweep included every state and involved more than 1,900 of the agency’s officers and agents.  (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
A news story in The Washington Times highlights the urgent need for immigration reform. According to the Times’ analysis of lists kept by the Department of Homeland Security, some “repeat illegal immigrants” have been deported upwards of 30 times each—with one individual deported “44 times in 15 years.”


oppose020618
An op-ed in USA Today by evangelical leader Tony Perkins details the ways that President Trump is keeping his promises to the Christian community.
I’ve heard the allegations about Donald Trump’s past moral failures. I don’t pretend to know what’s true and what isn’t. But there is a truth I do know: Faith in Jesus Christ calls us to live with moral clarity. And that means calling sin — sin.
I did not before the election — and I will not now — excuse immoral behavior. Such conduct is unacceptable. But Americans can only hold the president accountable for what he does in office. We can’t change the past.
Candidate Trump apologized for some past conduct and made the case to evangelicals that he was ready for a fresh start. Many evangelicals responded, “OK, we’ll give you a second chance, you get a do-over.” Some interpreted that as excusing or condoning his past conduct. That’s simply not true.
Perkins praises the President for appointing pro-life judges and “advancing policies essential to making America good and prosperous.”
Perkins explains that evangelicals are “offering reasoned support for a leader who is keeping his promises.”
WEST WING MHI 

Jumat, 16 Februari 2018

NK REPORT

NK Report

Only at MHI-NK News:

Will Seoul allow a sanctioned North Korean official on South Korean soil? By Chad O’Carroll and Fyodor Tertitskiy
Will Seoul allow a sanctioned North Korean official on South Korean soil?
The list of the North Korean delegates contains Choe Hwi, who is banned from traveling by the UNSC.
The South Korean Ministry of Unification has announced that three members of the delegation which are to visit South Korea during the Olympics are Kim Jong Un’s sister Kim Yo Jong (김여정), Choe Hwi (최휘), chairman of the State Sports Guidance Committee (국가체육지도위원회), and Ri Son Gwon (리선권), chairman of the Committee for the Peaceful


North Korea proposes Kim Yo Jong, two other officials for PyeongChang delegation, By Dagyum Ji and Oliver Hotham 
North Korea proposes Kim Yo Jong, two other officials for PyeongChang delegation
DPRK leader’s sister under U.S. sanctions, while Choe Hwi designated by Security Council.
North Korea on Wednesday proposed sending Kim Yo Jong, Choe Hwi, and Ri Son Gwon to lead its delegation to the upcoming PyeongChang Winter Olympics in the South, Seoul’s Ministry of Unification (MOU) has said.
Kim Yo Jong is the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, and currently serves as first vice director of the Workers’ Party of Korea’s (WPK) Propaganda and Agitation Department (PAD).She also serves as first vice director of the Central Committee of the WPK and a non-permanent member of the party’s Politburo.
The MOU on Wednesday said North Korea’s plan to dispatch Kim Yo Jong is in keeping with other nations sending relatives of their leaders to the games and appeared to suggest the South would accept the proposal.“We assess that North Korea’s high-level delegation is meaningful, composed of figures related to the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) and the government and the circle of the sports to correspond to the purpose of the visit celebrating the opening ceremony of the PyeongChang Winter Olympics,” the MOU said in a statement.
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Seized N. Korean ammunition was headed to Egyptian ballistic missile producer: PoE, By Leo Byrne 
Seized N. Korean ammunition was headed to Egyptian ballistic missile producer: PoE
UN Panel of Experts highlights group’s “long-standing relationship” with the DPRK
A shipment of North Korean rocket-propelled grenades seized two years ago by the Egyptian authorities was headed to a Cairo-based weapon and ballistic missile factory, according to an upcoming report from the UN Panel of Experts (PoE) tasked with monitoring DPRK sanctions enforcement.
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North Korea asks Seoul to provide fuel for Mangyongbong-92 ferry, By Dagyum Ji 
Russian fuel shipments to N. Korea overtook China's in November: data
140-member performing squad will stay at Seoul’s five-star Grand Walkerhill hotel later in the week.
Russia continued to send oil products and fuels to North Korea in November, the country’s export figures show.


Pyongyang pin-ups: North Korea’s film and TV beauties, By Tatiana Gabroussenko 
Pyongyang pin-ups: North Korea’s film and TV beauties
In DPRK culture, big is beautiful and round faces are the must-have.
Like many temporary visitors to the DPRK who had lived in South Korea for a long time, I immediately grasped the meaning of an old Korean saying: namnam puknyeo, “the most beautiful Korean women are from the North, the most beautiful Korean men are from the South.” Indeed, in Pyongyang I found myself surrounded by rather In DPRK culture.

Top MHI-NK Stories from around the web:

How to watch North Korean TV live (North Korea Tech) “A common question I get is whether it’s possible to watch North Korean TV live. There are several sources available with different levels of reliability and quality. Broadcasts begin at 3pm Pyongyang time on most days and run until around 11pm. On Sundays and public holidays, programming usually begins at 8am. News is broadcast at 5pm, 8pm and shortly before closedown. The 8pm news is the major bulletin of the day. With the exception of a handful of special events, all programming is recorded.”

Soldiers march across Kim Il Sung Square during a military parade in Pyongyang, April 15, 2017.
North Korea Prohibits Travel Amid Military Anniversary Preparations (Radio Free Asia) North Korea’s regime has issued a directive limiting long-distance travel for the entire month of February to prevent any “incidents” that could overshadow an anniversary marking the foundation of the country’s military, according to sources.On Feb. 8, North Korea will celebrate the 70th anniversary of the Korean People’s Army (KPA), which the country’s founder, Kim Il Sung, formed in 1948 from the anti-Japanese guerrilla force known as the Korean People’s Revolutionary Army he had established nearly 16 years earlier.
The North has mobilized as many as 12,000 troops since December for the event, which falls on the day before the opening of the Feb. 9-25 Pyeongchang Winter Olympics in rival South Korea, Yonhap news agency reported on Monday, citing South Korea’s National Intelligence Service.Sources inside the country recently told RFA’s Korean Service that ahead of the anniversary the Central Committee of the North Korean Worker’s Party ordered a ban on travel between all provinces and cities throughout February, disrupting the lives of residents.
“The Central Committee recently issued an order prohibiting the movement of residents,” a source from the capital Pyongyang said, speaking on condition of anonymity.“The order was given to prevent any possible incidents that can happen during the Military Foundation Day events on Feb. 8.”


Filipe Jacinto Nyusi, the president of Mozambique, speaks during the 71st session of the United Nations General Assembly, Wednesday, Sept. 21, 2016, at the U.N. headquarters.
Mozambique Denies Doing Business with North Korea (Voice of America) Mozambique is denying allegations that it continues to do business with North Korea in violation of U.N. sanctions. A CNN report published this month found that North Korea has signed contracts worth millions of dollars in Mozambique, funneled the money through diplomatic channels and used profits from fishing vessels off the Mozambican coast to fund its nuclear program.
But Mozambique’s deputy minister of foreign affairs and cooperation, Maria Manuela Lucas, denied that her government has made any agreements with North Korea that violate sanctions. She said Mozambique welcomes outside monitoring.“The Mozambican government recently invited the U.N. panel to visit Mozambique to see the work that the country is doing to be able to collaborate with this panel. The panel has recently been assembled and will also publish a report of the last meeting. The panel promised to visit Mozambique this quarter,” said Lucas.
She also said her government is working with private Mozambican businesses to educate them about the sanctions and shut down illegal operations.

The Education of Kim Jong–un (Brookings) In a new Brookings Essay, Jung H. Pak sheds light on the personality, upbringing and goals of Kim Jong Un. “Predictions about Kim’s imminent fall, overthrow, or demise were rife among North Korea and Asia watchers. Surely, someone in his mid-20s with no leadership experience would be quickly overwhelmed and usurped by his elders.”There was no way North Koreans would stand for a second dynastic succession, unheard of in communism, not to mention that his youth was a critical demerit in a society that prizes the wisdom that comes with age and maturity. And if Kim Jong-un were to hold onto his position, what would happen to his country? North Korea was poor and backward, isolated, unable to feed its people, while clinging to its nuclear and missile programs for legitimacy and prestige. Under Kim Jong-un, the collapse of North Korea seemed more likely than ever.
Pyongyang residents mourn the death of their leader, Kim Jong-il, in December 2011.
That was then.In the six years since, Kim has collected a number of honorifics, cementing his position as North Korea’s leader. Kim has carried out four of North Korea’s six nuclear tests, including the biggest one, in September 2017, with an estimated yield between 100-150 kilotons (the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, Japan during World War II was an estimated 15 kilotons). He has also tested nearly 90 ballistic missiles, three times more than his father and grandfather combined. North Korea now has between 20 and 60 nuclear weapons and has demonstrated ICBMs that appear to be capable of hitting the continental United States. It could also be on track to have up to 100 nuclear weapons and a variety of missiles—long-range, road-mobile, and submarine-launched—that could be operational as early as 2020. Under Kim, North Korea has conducted major cyberattacks and reportedly used a chemical nerve agent to kill Kim’s half-brother at an international airport.

All in the family

Four generations of Kims: A selective history*
*North Korea’s secrecy makes it difficult to verify information about Kim Jong-un’s children, including how many there are and when they were born. His wife’s birth date is also unconfirmed.
Kim Jong-un (right) bears an uncanny likeness to his grandfather Kim Il-sung (seen in hat) in both appearance and demeanor.
While basking in the nostalgia for his grandfather, Kim Jong-un is also determined to be seen as a “modern” leader of a “modern North Korea.” His charting of his own path can be seen in another departure from his father’s public persona. Kim has allowed himself to seem more transparent and accessible than his father.
Kim Jong–un frequently appears in public with his glamorous wife, Ri Sol–ju, to promote an image of youth, vigor, and dynamism.
He appears in public with his pretty and fashionable young wife, Ri Sol-ju (with whom he has at least one child, and possibly three). He hugs, holds hands, and links arms with men, women, and children, seeming comfortable with both young and old. That transparency has been extended to the government.
To outside scholars, Ri’s public appearances offer something else—a glimpse of an emerging material and consumer culture, which Kim seems to be actively promoting. Even as tension with the United States went into overdrive after a sixth nuclear test and the launch of numerous ballistic missiles during the summer and fall of 2017, state media showed Kim and his wife touring a North Korean cosmetics factory. He reportedly urged the industry to be “world competitive,” praised the factory for helping women realize their dream of being beautiful, and offered his own comments on the packaging.
Kim Jong–un has overseen four nuclear tests and debuted ballistic missiles of various ranges, launched from multiple locations.
In addition to the beauty industry, the vision of economic development that Kim has been promoting includes ski resorts, a riding club, skate parks, amusement parks, a new airport, and a dolphinarium, perhaps because he considers these as markers of a “modern” state. Or in his naiveté he may simply want his people to enjoy the things to which he has had privileged access. (Fujimoto claimed that when Kim was 18, he ruminated to the sushi chef, “We are here, playing basketball, riding horses, riding Jet Skis, having fun together. But what of the lives of the average people?”)


North Korean singer Hyon Song Wol during a visit to Seoul in January, 2018.
Pyongyang, PyeongChang, and the limits of Olympic diplomacy (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) South Korea aims to turn the Olympics into the “Peace Olympics” but it has encountered unexpected domestic challenges that are complicating diplomatic efforts. “Pyongyang is already getting at least some of what it wants: Seoul has lifted some unilateral sanctions.”
The Winter Olympics serve another purpose for Pyongyang: They are a major public relations opportunity on a global scale, such that even if dialogue breaks down afterwards, Pyongyang will walk away a winner. Historically, North Korea has chosen to disrupt major sporting events hosted in the South. In 1987 it blew up Korean Air Flight 858 with a goal of scaring athletes and fans away from the 1988 Seoul Summer Olympics, and in 2002, it provoked a skirmish in the West Sea (or Yellow Sea) during the World Cup soccer tournament co-hosted by Seoul and Tokyo.
This time, under a Kim Jong-un who is more image-conscious than his predecessors, North Korea wants a drastically different kind of spotlight: to be perceived as a normal, modern, peace-loving nuclear power. The North is also posturing to turn the PyeongChang Olympics into the “Pyongyang Olympics.” Knowing it will receive extensive coverage by global media with its extravagant arts performances and an unusually large delegation, the regime aims to hijack the limelight from the real stars of an international sporting event. The kind of attention it will command was foreshadowed in January, when the media extensively covered a preparatory visit to the South by North Korean singer Hyon Song Wol, head of her country’s state art troupe and a political emissary. The Rodong Shinmun, the North Korean Workers’ Party’s newspaper, ran a large photo of Hyon on the steps of a bus, looking down on a sea of South Korean photographers like a goddess, an apparent attempt to portray the North’s superiority over the South.
Hasil gambar untuk President Moon's Olympic diplomacy continues on D-Day for PyeongChang Games
Delicate waters ahead . For decades, Pyongyang has demanded that the United States and North Korea halt joint military exercises, but the drills were hardly deal breakers in the past. From 2000 to 2008, inter-Korean talks and the Six Party Talks took recesses during the drills and resumed afterwards without much fuss. But several factors might be contributing to the North’s recent push to halt the drills and indefinitely rid the peninsula of US troops. Pyongyang knows that the progressive Moon administration is more inclined to accept such demands than his conservative political opponents. It is also taking advantage of the push—by China and others—for a so-called “freeze for freeze” deal, in which North Korea halts nuclear-missile activity and testing while the US halts joint military exercises with South Korea. There is a growing chorus even in the American policy community for such a disproportionate bargain, a fact Kim is well aware of. More fundamentally, rumor has it that the North has almost depleted the resources and reserves it would need to mobilize its military in response to US-South Korean drills.
Trump’s hard choices will arrive when Pyongyang is ready to negotiate. By that point, the regime may have already perfected reliable, nuclear-tipped ICBMs. The White House is applying the most comprehensive sanctions against Pyongyang in 25 years to try to bring it to the negotiating table. Washington will need to formulate a plan soon, with Seoul, for the day Pyongyang is ready to make a deal.
But the ultimate moment of truth will come when Trump realizes complete denuclearization will not happen quickly or easily. At that point, he will have to decide whether to deal with the North using Cold War-style containment or military force. If Trump’s State of the Union address last week is any guide, then the latter appears likely. The president’s remarks on North Korea sounded eerily similar to former President George W. Bush’s 2002 “axis of evil” speech essentially selling the Iraq War. Without any mention of diplomacy—the other current pillar of Washington’s North Korea policy—Trump seemed to be building a moral case by manipulating the plight of the North Korean people to demonize the North and justify future military action.
Any US military strike on the North would compel Pyongyang to retaliate, which would quickly escalate into full-blown conflict. All wars are devastating, but marching into war with a young nuclear-armed state would be a serious mistake with catastrophic consequences not only for American allies in Northeast Asia, but also for Americans and the rest of the world. Hard-nosed diplomacy backed by credible pressure minus any military strike may not guarantee a quick fix, but it is the smart choice.
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